why the pundits lost the match... again

Saturday morning, Maureen Dowd lamented, "(Obama) willfully refuses to accept what debates are about. It’s not a lecture hall; it’s a joust." John Dickerson of Slate opined, "I can imagine Obama fans were frustrated their man didn't throw a few big punches." The sports analogies continued, "There were no knockout blows in the first presidential debate" bemoaned David Broder at the Washington Post.

The blows, the homeruns, the slam dunks may well resonate with first-stringers on the red or blue teams, but they're not the candidates' audience right now. It's the swing voters, stupid. You remember them, the ones who are tired of the endless bickering, the us vs. them? The ones looking for some real bipartisan problem-solving, not more left hooks and upper cuts? They're looking for civility, and yes, from time to time, for someone who agrees with his opponent's point-of-view or at least sees it. To them, and to me, Senator Obama won the first presidential debate hands down.

Here's what one New York Times blogger had to say about John McCain's performance, "Last night, he was condescending, arrogant, and childish. He has a lot of experience but he didn’t act Presidential. As a regular, white working stiff, I put a lot of stock in how someone treats another person. McCain was rude and offensive and acted like someone who takes his toys home if you disagree with him. I was an undecided Independent until last night. . . " It seems continually calling your opponent inexperienced and naive when he didn't sound inexperienced and naive backfired.

In the CBS poll of uncommitted voters who watched the debate 39% said Obama won, versus 24% for McCain, with the remainder calling it a tie. (Uncommitted voters may have a preference for one candidate but could change their minds.) The poll also indicated that while both candidates benefited from their performances, 46% said their opinion of Obama improved, while only 32% said the same of McCain. And tellingly, 21% had a lower opinion of McCain following the debate versus just 8% for Obama.

Women polled by CNN overwhelmingly chose Obama as the winner, 59%to 31%. That's because, Dowd aside, most women don't respond to the incessant sports analogy framework - horse races, boxing matches, mud wrestling - the presidential race is pinned into but rather merely tolerate it. And our tolerance is stretched with commentaries like Broder's, "Whether viewers caught the verbal and body-language signs that Obama seemed to accept McCain as the alpha male on the stage in Mississippi, I do not know." Seriously? Is this a contest for top gladiator or top statesman? I'm in it for the latter, and again Obama won in this category.

He was clearly in command of his facts with a depth and understanding of the issues that goes beyond the memorized soundbite. Both candidates outlined their positions and contested the other's. The lack of barbs and jabs in my book meant viewers could focus on serious issues discussed by serious candidates and not on the usually chicanery.

That seems to have worked in Obama's favor. Fully two-thirds of those in the CBS poll walked away believing they knew what both candidates would do as president - double the number that walked in - and 60% now believe Obama is prepared to be president, up from 44% before the debate. McCain, who actually lost a point here, but still ended up with 78%, did not have to clear this hurdle. His was on the economy and following the debate he trailed Obama by 24 points on whether voters believe he would make the right decisions about the economy.

One last word about political strategy and the drubbing President Clinton took in the media this week over his praising of Senator McCain: again, let's try to remember the audience. Uncommitted voters see value in both candidates. The practice of chiding one to gain points for the other may work well with the partisan crowd, but it tends to alienate the undecideds. Clinton, in the role of elder statesman, praised McCain but steadfastly sided with Obama. Given that Clinton is widely considered the best politician of his generation, and Obama, that first-term senator with a funny name who is currently ahead in the polls, is giving him a run for his money on that title, maybe we should trust that these guys are on to something.